Waste Management 2030+ The future of waste management in an overcrowded planet

The scope of this article is to outline the major trends and challenges that will shape the future of waste management for the next decades of years. Although in our complex and unpredictable world “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” as the great scientist Niels Bohr has mentioned, there are certain trends and facts that more or less create at least the “big picture” in which waste management will be evolved. Interestingly the discussion for those trends has not been directly linked with the future of waste management, at least according to the author’s knowledge.

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Waste management poses challenges, but could unlock major environmental and economic gains

Every day, the city of Rio de Janeiro, one of the largest metropolises in the Southern Hemisphere, generates 17,000 tonnes of waste, ranging from large industrial debris to candy wrappers bought innocently at newspaper stands. While this waste presents a serious and urgent environmental challenge, it also fuels an increasingly significant portion of the economy, with benefits extending beyond financial gains. - When we look at developed European countries, many are already recycling between 40% and 50%, with some reaching 60%. From an economic standpoint, both recyclable materials and organic waste hold tremendous value - stated Adalberto Maluf, National Secretary for Environment and Environmental Quality at the Ministry of the Environment (MMA), during the Methane Forum: Climate Emergency Brake, at the Rio Nature and Climate Week. Citing a 2025 report, Maluf mentioned that Brazil literally throws away R$27 billion annually, while municipalities spend significantly more - R$45 billion - managing all this waste, often overlooking the environmental impact or economic potential buried in landfills and dumps. - We spend R$45 billion to collect and dispose of waste in landfills, yet we manage to recycle less than a third of the potential. I believe it will be necessary to review contracts, create performance-based remuneration mechanisms, and pay for both effectively sorted materials and those diverted from landfills - he added. According to the IBGE, 60.5% of Brazilian municipalities adopt some form of selective waste collection, and several initiatives serve as examples of how to manage city waste. In his panel presentation, Bernardo Ornelas, Project Coordinator at the Rio de Janeiro Municipal Urban Cleaning Company (Comlurb), highlighted Ecoparque do Caju, a national benchmark in waste management and recycling. There, received materials are sorted and can be used for biogas production, organic compounds for urban gardens, or human consumption, in the case of still...