Baseline scenario

The baseline for a CDM project activity is the scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic
emissions by sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) that would occur in the absence of the proposed project
activity. A baseline shall cover emissions from all gases, sectors and source categories listed in Annex A
(of the Kyoto Protocol) within the project boundary. A baseline shall be deemed to reasonably represent
the anthropogenic emissions by sources that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity
if it is derived using a baseline methodology referred to in paragraphs 37 and 38 of the CDM modalities
and procedures.
Different scenarios may be elaborated as potential evolutions of the situation existing before the
proposed CDM project activity. The continuation of a current activity could be one of them;
implementing the proposed project activity may be another; and many others could be envisaged.
Baseline methodologies shall require a narrative description of all reasonable baseline scenarios.
To elaborate the different scenarios, different elements shall be taken into consideration, including
related guidance issued by the Executive Board. For instance, the project participants shall take into
account national / sectoral policies and circumstances, ongoing technological improvements, investment
barriers, etc. (see Appendix C paragraph b (vii) and paragraphs 45 (e), 46, 48 (b) of decision 17/CP.7).
SOURCE: GUIDELINES FOR COMPLETING CDM-PDD, CDM-NMB and CDM-NMM